De La Hoya-Pacquiao Fight Preview: Round Three of Three

Saturday night's big fight is approaching and there are so many angles from which to approach this bout that a person could convince themselves of almost any outcome. However, when there is so much "conventional wisdom" to consider, its helpful to analyze just how much validity each angle has.

#1 THE WEIGHT WILL HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT ON THIS FIGHT - FALSE

I expect both Pacquiao and De La Hoya to be comfortable at this weight.

Manny Pacquiao weighed in at 142 lbs and will likely be around 150 lbs in the ring. Pacquiao clearly did not feel the need to put on additional weight just to reach the 147 weight limit. People should remember he weighed 147 lbs on fight night against David Diaz and did not appear to lose any hand or foot speed.

Oscar De La Hoya weighed in at 145 lbs and this was a statement in itself. All along De La Hoya has been telling people how easy it was for him to make weight and coming in two pounds under the limit backs that up. Freddie "Joke Coach" Roach (as Floyd Sr. would call him) has been emphasizing how much effect the lost weight would have on De La Hoya, but I will believe that when I see it. De La Hoya should be 160 lbs or a little less in the ring.

#2 DE LA HOYA'S HEIGHT AND REACH ADVANTAGE ARE MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR MANNY - TRUE

De La Hoya's 4-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage are major factors in this fight. Part of the reason Manny looked so good in his last fight against David Diaz was that he had a big reach advantage and could use his speed to avoid getting hit at all. It was basically target practice. It was all too easy.

This fight will be nothing like that. Pacquiao will have to get inside De La Hoya's stinging left jab if he is to have any chance in this fight. This is a jab that is longer and more effective than anything he has seen from Barrera, Morales, or Marquez.

#3 PACQUIAO'S SPEED WILL BE TOO MUCH FOR DE LA HOYA - FALSE

Oscar has certainly struggled with boxers who have hand and foot speed, both of which Manny has. However Quartey, Whitaker, Mosley, Hopkins, and Mayweather were all slick boxers. Pacquiao is significantly improved, but he is not that type of boxer. He is an attacking boxer who is used to chasing down his prey. Pacquiao can only fight going forward and really does not know what to do when he is backing up (see Round 8 of his second fight with Marquez). De La Hoya does quite well against those type of fighters (see Chavez, Vargas, Mayorga fights).

Of course, Manny is going to be faster than any attacking fighter Oscar has faced. However, his speed and eagerness will be affected once he gets hit by a few shots on his way in.

#4 PACQUIAO'S RELENTLESS PACE MAY WEAR DOWN DE LA HOYA - TRUE

It is a known fact that Oscar De La Hoya has struggled in the late rounds of many of his big fights. If Manny can pressure him from the opening bell then De La Hoya may tire in the late rounds. Pacquiao is a very active fighter who can throw punches constantly for 12 rounds and De La Hoya has been in generally slow-paced fights, especially in the last few years. Unless he hurts Pacquiao in the first six rounds and slows him down, De La Hoya may start to take some punishment late.

#5 PACQUIAO'S SOUTHPAW STANCE WILL GIVE DE LA HOYA PROBLEMS - FALSE

Once again, this might be true if Pacquiao was a finesse boxer who was going to be jabbing De La Hoya all night with his right. But nobody believes Manny can beat Oscar without regularly landing his straight left hand. Freddie Roach has noted that Pacquiao has been susceptible to counter right hands, but not lefts, and Oscar relies on a big left hook. However, it is a fact that Pacquiao is open to the left hook when he throws the left (just like any fighter). This is De La Hoya's best punch and unless Oscar is weakened by the weight loss, it should be the hardest punch Pacquiao has ever faced.

#6 DE LA HOYA WILL BE ABLE TO WALK THROUGH PACQUIAO'S POWER - FALSE

Oscar has a great chin, but he can be hurt and Pacquiao will carry his power up to welterweight. If Manny can get to Oscar's body, De La Hoya is also vulnerable there. Do not expect De La Hoya to simply walk down Pacquiao as some have suggested. It is because the PacMan had such power in the lower weight classes that this fight is believable.

#7 THIS FIGHT WILL END IN A KNOCKOUT - TRUE

Despite the expectation of many that Oscar's natural cautious fighting style will create a decision, this fight should not go the distance. Pacquiao will press the action because that is the only way he fights. De La Hoya will be forced to confront his inner demons and pull the trigger, if he still can.

#8 OSCAR DE LA HOYA WILL LOOK LIKE AN OLD FIGHTER - ?????

Probably the biggest question in the fight. And it is impossible to answer this until we see it in the ring. Nobody ever seems to know this until it happens. Sure, there were some signs in the Forbes fight. Oscar was hit far too often in that fight. Yet that was partly because De La Hoya was aggressively chasing Forbes around the ring and did not fear Forbes' power at all. If the reflexes have slowed significantly, it will be a painful end for the Golden Boy.

PREDICTION: DE LA HOYA BY TKO in the 8TH ROUND

I love Manny Pacquiao's style and energy, but unless Oscar is finished, he should be able to land as good as he gets. Up until now, Pacquiao would benefit if any fighter traded with him. Not this time. This fight will have action and De La Hoya will feel Pacquiao's power at times, but the left hook will land several times early. As a result Pacquiao will be a little less eager to dive in recklessly. At some point though, the PacMan will attack again and that's when he should get caught for good.


Manish Pandya
Staff Editor of The Daily Sports Herald